Are We There Yet? vol. 244
The late fall always reminds me of a story from a couple of decades ago and my experience as a homeowner. Our large oak trees were getting overgrown, and we knew we would have to hire someone to do some large trimming. On a random Sunday morning, there was a knock at the door and a man offering tree services. He had a truck with the name of his company, and he told me that my neighbor, George, who lived behind me, had recommended that he talk to me. His business card said “Arborist” so what could go wrong?
My initial thoughts were that this was divine intervention because I knew my neighbor was careful with contractors, and if these guys were good enough for him, they would be good enough for us. The next day, as my wife and I headed for work, the tree guys were setting up.
As it was dark when we returned home, the tree guys had already completed the job and were gone. We couldn’t really see the trees, but they appeared to have been pruned. Then, my neighbor from across the street, Kiki, came over to our house. Kiki informed us that in the process of cutting the limbs and swinging them on ropes to the ground, the tree men had knocked our chimney entirely off our roof. The following morning, I noticed a large stump leaning up against our fence. I was annoyed that they just left it sitting in our yard. When I moved it, 30 feet of fence fell over. They had knocked the fence down as well and used the log to prop it up. We later learned that they had simply put the chimney back on the roof, but it was completely unsecure and likely would have fallen off with a stiff wind. It may be funny now, but it wasn’t so funny back then.
I later learned from George that he had not used these contractors and had not recommended that they talk to me. Psychologist Danny Kahneman who died earlier this year researched and wrote extensively about heuristics. Heuristics are the process by which humans use mental shortcuts to arrive at quick decisions. Our brains developed heuristics as a protective measure. If a dinosaur is charging at you, you don’t have time to think through the best way to get away; you simply run for safety. But sometimes heuristics work against us in situations where we don’t need to make such a quick decision and should take more time to investigate, such as hiring a so-called arborist to trim your trees.
Take care and stay safe.
BOOK:
Polostan by Neil Stephenson
The first installment in Neal Stephenson’s Bomb Light cycle, Polostan follows the early life of the enigmatic Dawn Rae Bjornberg. Born in the American West to a clan of cowboy anarchists, Dawn is raised in Leningrad after the Russian Revolution by her Russian father, a party line Leninist who re-christens her Aurora. She spends her early years in Russia but then grows up as a teenager in Montana, before being drawn into gunrunning and revolution in the streets of Washington, D.C., during the depths of the Great Depression. When a surprising revelation about her past puts her in the crosshairs of U.S. authorities, Dawn returns to Russia, where she is groomed as a spy by the organization that later becomes the KGB.
Learn more about Bob Len here.
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